Festive advertising is forecast at ₹60,000 to 62,000 crore in 2026, up 13 to 17 per cent. Commerce ads are growing at more than twice the market.
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Source: Datum India Advertising Forecast 2025-2030.
What the Report Covers
Five years of festive ad spend, where the 2026 rupee goes, and what buyers now ask for before they spend it.
Festive’s share of the Indian ad year was 30.5 per cent in 2022 and has risen every year since, to 34 to 35 per cent in 2026. Festive spend has grown about 17 per cent a year against about 13.5 for the whole market. Festive is a third of the market but takes 40 to 42 per cent of its growth.
Two thirds of the festive rupee is digital. Commerce and retail media runs across search, social, video and display, so it never shows up as a line of its own. A plan built format by format misses it and underbuys it.
Quick commerce is the fastest part of that pool, at about ₹2,200 crore and up 50 per cent. Festive carries up to two fifths of a quick commerce platform’s advertising year.
The 2026 season runs from Onam to Chhath, 26 August to 15 November. Diwali falls on 8 November, nineteen days later than in 2025.
₹ crore. The 2026 forecast is a range, ₹60,000 to 62,000 crore.
Source: Datum India Advertising Forecast 2025-2030.
Google and Meta still lead India’s digital ad spend, and their revenue still grows every year. Their share is what is slipping.
Sources: RoC filings; Google, Meta, Amazon, Flipkart, Myntra and Zepto filings; Datum India Advertising Forecast 2025-2030. FY26 figures are Datum estimates.
Key Findings
Four findings from the report. The platform split, the shopper and buyer surveys and the full forecast sit in the PDF.
Festive’s share of the ad year has gone up in each of the last four years. In 2026 it takes 34 to 35 per cent of a ₹1,75,782 crore market, and 40 to 42 per cent of what that market adds.
India’s commerce-ads pool grows from ₹23,740 crore in 2025 to ₹30,091 crore in 2026, up 27 per cent against 11 for the market. Amazon and Flipkart Group still take seven rupees in ten.
In the past three months 51 per cent used an AI chatbot to research a purchase and 49 per cent a marketplace assistant such as Rufus or Flippi. OpenAI announced ChatGPT ads in India on 27 August, six weeks before the first festive sale.
Thirty-six per cent of Diwali shoppers were already exploring products on 1 August, and 70 per cent by the time the sales open on 8 October. Discovery money has to be spent in August and September.
The money is following the checkout. Shopping and quick commerce apps gain because they can show the sale an ad drove.
Key Highlight
Programmatic mobile buyers check the return on every channel, however they pay for it. After targeting, a visible price is what they weigh most when they choose a partner.
Per cent of programmatic mobile buyers, top four factors.
Source: EMARKETER and Datum Intelligence, Independent Mobile Advertising Survey, July 2026, n=166 programmatic mobile buyers.
72.9 per cent of programmatic mobile buyers always or usually measure channel-level return, even on a CPM buy. Only 5.4 per cent never do.
63.9 per cent moved budget from the walled gardens to independent channels in the past year, and 1.2 per cent moved it back. 73.5 per cent expect to give independents more over the next three years.
90.4 per cent call supply-path transparency essential or somewhat important, even though it ranks fourth among the factors they weigh.
A reach proposal should arrive with its own measure of return, and a partner should show its fees and supply path up front.
How We Do It
A forecast model, company filings, three surveys and the trade press, read together.
The Datum India Advertising Forecast 2025-2030 covers digital and traditional media from 2016 to 2030, with the festive series from 2022 and the 2026 split by medium.
Google and Meta India ad revenue from RoC filings, FY21 to FY25, and Amazon, Flipkart, Myntra and Zepto filings for the platform split. FY26 figures are Datum estimates.
The Datum Festive Barometer Study 2026 of 2,000 online adults, the India Online Shopper Survey of 6,218 shoppers from June 2026, and the EMARKETER and Datum survey of 166 programmatic mobile buyers.
Advertiser and agency commentary from exchange4media, Storyboard18, Moneycontrol and other trade press in August and September 2026, and OpenAI’s announcements on ChatGPT ads.
The festive season runs from Onam through Chhath. In 2026 that is 26 August to 15 November, twelve weeks. AdEx is advertising expenditure, and Datum’s forecast for calendar 2026 is ₹1,75,782 crore, or $18.6 bn.
Commerce advertising is ads sold by platforms where the purchase happens, priced against the basket and attributed to checkout. It overlaps the search, display and video splits.
Source: Datum 2026 Festive AdEx, definitions.
How Datum builds its forecasts →Book a session with the Datum team and we will take you through the forecast, the commerce-ads pool and the buyer survey behind this report, read against your own category. Bring your questions and we will answer them against the data.
Talk to us →What to Do About It
Drawn from the recommendations for brands in the report.
Amazon and Flipkart open their sales on 8 and 9 October. Last season premium slots cost 9 to 20 per cent more, and late buyers paid up to 25 per cent more.
Thirty-five per cent of online shoppers find new products on a quick commerce app, level with advertising across television, online and print.
Affordable EMI rose seven points to 51 per cent, the biggest jump among reasons to shop. On phones and appliances, sell the instalment first.
63.9 per cent of mobile buyers moved budget out of the walled gardens last year. Settle what counts as a sale before the first rupee goes out.
Report Scope
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