Flagship Report 4th Edition

Festive Barometer, 2026

India's festive season has grown every year since 2014. The 2026 window opens later than any season Datum has tracked and is expected to cross ₹1,50,000 crore on volume rather than on price.

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The 2026 reading

Festive sales are expected to grow 25 to 29 per cent, to cross ₹1,50,000 crore

The festive season has grown every year since 2014, and 2025 reversed a three-year slowdown at 25 per cent. 2026 is expected to hold that pace on volume alone: more shoppers, buying more often, at a smaller average basket. The window opens sixteen days later than last year, with Diwali on 8 November.
Exhibit 01
Twelve years of festive online GMV, and the 2026 forecast
Big Billion Days and Great Indian Festival window, ₹ crore. 2024 and 2025 restated August 2026.
Year on
year
Year on year: 25 per cent in 2025, 25 to 29 per cent expected in 2026. Tap a bar for the full reading.
Source: Datum Festive Barometer Study 2026. 2026 is a Datum forecast stated as a range. Festive 2014 was a single day and window lengths differ by year, so the early years are not comparable with the recent ones.
Key findings Six readings
1
The season is expected to cross ₹1,50,000 crore
Growth of 25 to 29 per cent on ₹1,20,000 crore in 2025. The season has grown every year since 2014, and 2025 reversed a three-year slowdown.
2
All of the growth comes from more orders
More households are expected to buy, and to buy more often, while the average basket falls. A season that grows on volume rewards availability and delivery over discount depth.
3
The window opens sixteen days later and runs three days longer
Diwali falls on 8 November against 20 October last year, and the window runs 31 days against 28. Comparisons across years hold only when the window length is stated with the number.
4
Households are spending again
Urban households put non-essential spending at a net of plus 3.3 in July, more than double the previous peak and the highest reading in twenty-two survey rounds.
5
Delivery capacity is running ahead of the season
Delhivery moved 322 million parcels in the June quarter and Shadowfax 198 million, up 95 per cent. Seasonal hiring is expected to run 15 to 20 per cent higher.
6
The basket is moving from phones to everyday goods
Households are spreading the same money across more, smaller orders, buying groceries and home goods where they once bought a phone.
Report scope

Eight categories and the quick commerce layer

Each category is sized, forecast and split by platform, and carries its own growth rate and competitive read. Quick commerce is built as a separate layer on top, so it can be read on its own or inside the categories it sits in.
Mobile
Smartphones, feature phones, accessories
Consumer Electronics
Laptops, audio, wearables, televisions, cameras
Personal Care & Cosmetics
Skincare, haircare, fragrances, colour cosmetics
Lifestyle
Clothing, footwear, jewellery, bags and accessories
Homeware & Furniture
Furniture, textiles, decor, kitchen, home improvement
Appliances
Large and small home appliances
Grocery
Staples, packaged food, beverages, household
Books & General Merchandise
Books, stationery, toys, games
Quick Commerce
The ten minute layer across grocery, beauty, gifting and electronics
How we do it

Four steps, and a workbook that every published figure ties back to

Secondary research, primary collection, a linked forecasting model, and validation against the market. The model carries its own reconciliation tests, and no figure reaches the report without passing them.
1. Secondary research
Existing Datum market data, company filings and disclosures, industry reports, trade associations, and government and regulator data including RBI, NPCI and RAI.
2. Primary collection
A consumer survey of online adults across Indian cities during the festive window, ecosystem interviews, and quick commerce price and assortment scraping.
3. Modelling and forecasting
A linked workbook with a scenario switch, built two ways. A shopper build of buyers, frequency and basket, checked against an independent category build.
4. Validation
Reconciliation tests inside the model, then review with market experts and ecosystem players against comparable indicators.
Definition. The festive window runs from the day Big Billion Days and the Great Indian Festival open to Diwali, both dates inclusive. Window lengths differ by year and are stated with every figure. Read the full methodology →
Past editions

Festive Barometer archive

Each edition is published before the season opens and carries the forecast Datum stood behind at the time. The figures below are those published forecasts. Exhibit 01 above carries the restated outturns.
3rd Edition
Festive Barometer, 2025
₹1,20,000 Cr
Published forecast
The season the forecast landed on the number. Quick commerce reached 12 per cent of festive spend, and grocery, appliances and personal care all took share from mobile.
Read more →
2nd Edition
Festive Barometer, 2024
₹1,00,000 Cr
Published forecast
The season quick commerce crossed a billion dollars and reached 8 per cent of festive spend. Mobile and fashion still held about half the market.
Read more →
1st Edition
Festive Barometer, 2023
₹81,000 Cr
Published forecast
The inaugural edition, in the tenth year of Big Billion Days. First week concentration and platform preference across 20 cities.
Read more →

Cited by

Financial Times
Financial Times
Moneycontrol
Moneycontrol
The Economic Times
The Economic Times
Mint
Mint

Talk to us about the 2026 edition

Book a session with the Datum team and we will take you through the full Festive Barometer: the category mix, platform preference, the quick commerce layer, the consumer survey, and the model behind every figure. Bring your questions and we will answer them against the data.

Talk to us →