Impact on Kirana Stores
Understanding the rapid growth of 10-minute delivery in India, its disruption of traditional retail, and implications for kirana stores across categories.
What's Inside
Quick commerce, grocery delivered in 10 to 20 minutes, is the fastest-growing grocery channel in India. This report measures how fast it is growing and what it is doing to kirana stores, which still hold most of the market.
Platforms run dark stores stocking 7,000 to 12,000 products each. Blinkit alone grew from 2.2 million to 8.9 million average monthly transacting customers between Q1 FY23 and Q2 FY25.
The findings draw on a survey of 3,032 online grocery buyers, a survey of 300 kirana store owners and industry interviews, all conducted in October 2024 across 10 cities.
It also covers what FMCG companies say about the channel, how quick commerce prices compare with kirana stores and a market forecast to 2030.
Key Findings
Quick commerce was an estimated $6 billion market in 2024 and is forecast to reach $40.1 billion by 2030.
67% of kirana owners surveyed reported lower sales since quick commerce arrived, and 74% see it as a long-term threat.
Beyond grocery, 47% of buyers purchase household essentials on quick commerce and 42% buy beauty and personal care.
69% of online grocery buyers prefer 10-minute delivery to next-day slots, and 73% say they are likely to pay extra for it.
Blinkit nearly doubled its dark store count between Q1 FY23 and Q2 FY25, reaching 791 stores.
53% of households place more than five quick commerce orders a month, and 67% spend over ₹400 an order.
Inside the Report
Very little so far, but the share is moving. Unorganised retail, mostly kirana stores, still held 92.2% of grocery sales, while quick commerce held 1.0%. Datum expects the kirana share to slip from 92.9% in 2023 to 88.9% by 2028. Quick commerce is the fastest-growing grocery channel over that period, at a 48% compound annual rate.
The overall grocery market was worth $570.3 billion in 2023 and is forecast to reach $818.3 billion by 2028. Quick commerce was estimated at about $6 billion in 2024, up from $0.3 billion in 2021, and is forecast to reach $40.1 billion by 2030.
Blinkit shows the pace. Between Q1 FY23 and Q2 FY25 its average monthly transacting customers rose from 2.2 million to 8.9 million, and quarterly gross order value went from ₹11.7 billion to ₹61.3 billion.
For more than top-ups. In a survey of 3,032 online grocery buyers across 10 cities, 58% said they use quick commerce for their full month's grocery needs, 52% for top-up purchases and 43% for unplanned ones. 69% prefer 10-minute delivery to scheduled next-day delivery.
Order frequency is high. 53% of households place more than five quick commerce orders a month and 26% place more than ten. About two in three buyers have an average order value above ₹400, and Mumbai leads the cities at ₹541.
Buyers rate the channel well on price. 66% say their preferred platform gives better value for money than a kirana store, and between 75% and 83% say it is cheaper, depending on the category. That loyalty has limits: 62% would consider switching if prices rose 10%. High delivery fees (39%) and late deliveries (36%) are the most common complaints.
Blinkit was the most used platform, by 65% of respondents, with Zepto and Swiggy Instamart each at 55%.
They are losing share of the basket rather than whole customers. 46% of quick commerce buyers say they now buy less from kirana shops, and 5% have stopped altogether. 82% of buyers have moved at least a quarter of their kirana purchases to quick commerce. Groceries such as rice, wheat and pulses (51%) and fresh fruit and vegetables (48%) are the categories buyers see as most affected.
Store owners see it too. In a separate survey of 300 kirana owners, 67% reported a fall in sales since quick commerce arrived, and 74% called it a long-term threat to their business.
Datum estimates that $1.28 billion of kirana sales would move to quick commerce in 2024. That is 21% of quick commerce sales that year; the other 79% comes from other channels or is new spending.
The report combines an online survey of 3,032 grocery buyers, a survey of 300 kirana store owners and interviews with quick commerce, FMCG, logistics and retail executives, all conducted in October 2024 across Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Kolkata and Pune. Market sizing draws on company filings, broker reports and Datum's e-commerce and quick commerce models.
Report Scope
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